Understanding History and Overcoming Bias: Lessons from Ukraine
In recent months, my consultancy, Morton Executive Decisions, has been actively involved in Ukraine, conducting long-term needs assessments, facilitating refugee evacuations, providing humanitarian aid logistical support, and delivering tailored training programs for aid workers. Having witnessed the conflict firsthand, I often hear people express disbelief at the scale of the situation. However, it's important to recognize that history tends to repeat itself, driven by the desire for power by those with evil intentions. In this article, I will share my experiences and insights from working in Ukraine and highlight the significance of predictive analytics and the need to overcome bias when assessing and responding to complex situations.
As the founder of Morton Security Solutions (now Morton Executive Decisions), I began operating consistently in Ukraine just two years after starting the company in 2012. My initial assessment of the first invasion into Crimea and the annexed regions indicated that Putin's actions would be limited due to potential international backlash. However, I understood Putin's ambitions and the historical context of his desire to reestablish control over former Soviet countries. I realized that a partial invasion was not logical and presented my clients with a five-year outlook that accounted for potential changes in global leadership and large-scale crises.
Over the years, I have consistently advised my clients to monitor the situation in Russia and the conflict in the annexed regions. Various indicators, such as troop movements along the border, changes in leadership, and direct threats from the Russian government, provided clear warnings. I developed tripwires—non-negotiable indicators that would trigger immediate action. Fortunately, my clients heeded these warnings, and when Russia executed a full-scale invasion disguised as a "special operation," none of my clients had expatriates in Ukraine.
Despite the presence of numerous indicators pointing towards an invasion, many professionals, politicians, and even intelligence agencies were surprised. Predictive analysis should consider human nature and the inherent biases that can cloud judgment. When someone asserts that a catastrophic scenario is impossible, it often reveals their bias and reluctance to realistically assess the situation. Stepping into the shoes of an evil person and understanding their perspective is crucial in overcoming bias and arriving at a more accurate assessment.
Accepting the reality of a dire situation can be challenging for many due to fear and the desire to maintain a sense of control. Western societies, in particular, have experienced relative security for years, allowing them to focus on building their own version of reality. Franklin D. Roosevelt's famous quote, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," holds true. When fear prevents a realistic appraisal of a problem, confirmation bias sets in, hindering problem-solving efforts.
Conflicts like the war in Ukraine often have a significant psychological component. People cling to hope even in the face of extreme adversity, making it difficult to integrate scenarios of loss into contingency plans. Balancing hope, bias, and reality is crucial for effective preparation. Intelligence analysts, often seen as doomsayers, play an essential role in providing accurate depictions of the future.
Predictive analytics, while not infallible, are valuable for planning when used by analysts who can detach themselves from their biases. As a project manager and analyst, I constantly remind myself to see situations through the eyes of others and challenge my own narrow viewpoints. While I am not always right in my predictions, I am proud to have contributed to saving thousands of lives over the years.
Understanding history and recognizing the repetitive nature of certain events is essential for effective analysis and response to complex situations. Overcoming bias, embracing predictive analytics, and confronting uncomfortable realities are vital steps in preparing for potential crises. By collecting accurate data, assessing situations objectively, and taking decisive action, we can navigate through challenging times and work towards a more secure and informed future.
Pictures all provided by Morton Executive Decisions personnel.
Contact Pete with questions regarding this article or developing your own protective security program.